Lithium-Ion Battery Developments

Welcome to a Laptop Battery specialist
of the IBM Laptop Battery   First post by: www.itsbattery.com

In the first part of this article I reviewed and extended my discussion about the influence of oil prices on adoption of lithium batteries including a brief analysis of oil ETFs as possible investment options during the transition of the global automotive industry to electric propulsion. Now, I take a new look at technological development in lithium-ion batteries to identify major trends in chemistries that are being introduced, including an analysis of cathode and anode material and resource use, as well as advice on how and where to invest in response to these innovations. The contribution closes with some brief comments on what lies ahead both in terms of lithium batteries and beyond.

Technological development in Li-ion batteries

During the last year or so, technological development in the lithium battery industry seems to have made considerable progress in terms of different types of Li-ion batteries currently being studied but not in terms of new research projects that transcend them to venture into more advanced ones (e.g. Li-Sulfur or Li-air). To make things even more complicated, there has also been some indication that technological development is heading towards distinct clasess of batteries beyond lithium.

Based on a review of publications on Li-ion batteries during the first five months and eighteen days of this year in Science Direct, one of the most prestigious sources for scientific research, I have found some interesting trends in terms of cathode and anode material and resource use that are explained below.

Cathode material and resource use

As shown in Table 3, the results seem to suggest that in a few years from now important breakthroughs are likely to be accomplished in Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO), Lithium Vanadium Phosphate (LiVPO), Lithium Manganese Oxide (LiMnO), Lithium Vanadium Oxide (LiVO), and Lithium Manganese Phosphate (LiMnPO) batteries; and less so in Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LiCoO), Lithium Nickel Phosphate (LiNiPO) batteries and Lithium Nickel Oxide (LiNiO). Safety and cost appear to be the main drivers of change in LiFePO, LiMnO, and LiMnPO batteries such as IBM ThinkPad X61 battery, IBM ThinkPad T61 battery, IBM ThinkPad X41 battery, IBM ThinkPad X40 battery, IBM ThinkPad X20 battery, IBM ThinkPad R60 Battery, IBM ThinkPad T60 Battery, IBM 40Y6797 Battery, IBM 40Y6799 Battery, IBM FRU 92P1139 Battery, whereas the pursuit of power seems to be the main motivation for LiVPO, and LiVO.

Initially, the number of studies on LiFePO seemed to be a puzzle. LiFePO batteries were first used (albeit with limited success) in mass-produced electric cars by BYD Company Limited (BYDDF.PK) in China towards the end of 2008. In the United States, A123 Systems (AONE) has been striving, since its foundation in 2001, to become a leader in this specific kind of advanced storage systems. Yet it has experienced difficulty in selling its products to major electric car companies. Currently, its main auto clients are fisker Automotive and Smith Electric Vehicles (SEV). Beginning the second half of this year, A123 will supply its advanced Li-ion batteries to them. Note that neither of these companies is listed in the U.S. stock exchange market. Nevertheless, by January 2012 A123 is expected to release details of a deal with a major US manufacturer for an all-electric car to be launched in 2013. Meanwhile, the company´s shares price has been improving steadily in the last 10 days or so (following a new favorable rating by morgan stanley), and the stock has recently been included in the top ten stocks under $5 with most ´buy´-ratings.

All these prospects, together with those reported by a recent contributor, those suggested by this author in another piece, and the aid received by A123 from the US government since 2009, amply explain why that many scientific articles on that chemistry have been published. Nevertheless, there remains a high degree of uncertainty as to resource use for this specific class of Li-ion batteries. Hence, in this article, I will refrain from making any comments on that subject.

The number of studies on LiVPO (a derivative of LiFePO) and LiVO batteries clearly reflects a new course of technological development in Li-ion batteries. In a recent interview with the Gold report, a well known analyst has argued that although LiMnO batteries are safe, they´re low-voltage (power) batteries. By contrast, LiVPO batteries can produce more than six times as much power as the best LiMnO battery and produce it in a secure manner. If we agree that battery power is crucial for the operation of an electric car, then it comes as no surprise that so many companies such as China´s BYD (BYDDF.PK), Valence Technology Inc. (VLNC), Subaru Co. Ltd. (9778:JP) and GS Yuasa Corporation (6674:JP) have firm intentions to commercialize them. In its Annual report on Form 10-K, Fiscal Year Ended, March 31, 2011, Valence Technology Inc, for example, has indicated that: “Following years of commercial use, we believe our experience is paving the way for the lower cost and higher performance solutions that our next generation lithium vanadium technologies will offer.” Although Valence´s stock has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year, it remains an interesting option given its relatively high 1-Year Return (81.537%). The prospects for this kind of batteries may have implications for use of vanadium. Those interested in investing in this resource may want to take a look at Largo Resources Ltd. (LGO:CN) and American Vanadium Corp (RMRCF:US). By and large, the latter stock appears to be a better bet; it reflects an extraordinary upward trend since December 2008.

The results for LiMnO and its derivatives, as well as LiMnPO appear to be not very significant considering that this energy technology powers the two only mass-produced electric cars (i.e the Volt and the Leaf) already on the roads. The question remains as to whether this has anything to do with the inherent limitations of this type of batteries in comparison with LiVPO, for example, or the possibility that the bulk of scientific research currently being advanced in LG Chem Limited (051910:KS) from South Korea and NEC Corporation (6701:JP) from Japan, the battery suppliers for these revolutionary electric vehicles, is not being published for proprietary reasons. As for prospects for magnesium in the US, a recent article published on Manganese Investing News informs: “Currently, there are no producers of manganese in North America. However, two companies are working on their deposits, the first being American Manganese Inc. (AMYZF:US) which could be the lowest cost electrolytic manganese producer in the world at $0.44/lb compared with$0.98/lb in China. The second company is Wildcat Silver (WS:CN) that is working on its Hardshell property in Arizona.” Investing in these companies seems to be a very good option, as reflected by their extremely high 1-Year Return indicators: 196.902% and 335.443%, respectively.

According to an article published in 2006, most battery makers were already back then moving away from cobalt-based Li-ion because these batteries are “not very robust and cannot take a high charge and discharge currents.” As of now, only one electric vehicle is using this energy storage technology (since 2008): The Tesla Motors (TSLA) Roadster. However, Tesla’s CEO has just announced that in a few months it will stop producing the emblematic all-electric car. Hence Tesla’s cobalt-based Li-ion batteries will most likely be discontinued as well.

As shown in Figure 6, OM Group (OMG), the world’s largest producer of cobalt chemicals and powders, has seen the price of its shares substantially decreased in the last 5 years or so. Tesla’s decision will certainly not contribute to improving the performance of OM Group in the stock market. Under these circumstances, I have no suggestions for investing in cobalt which is still a very volatile and difficult-to-extract commodity due to its concentration on a very conflictive region of the world.